The UNAIDS’ “2007 AIDS epidemic update” reporting developments in the global AIDS epidemic is available in English (1.6MB), French (1.4MB) and Spanish (1.7MB) from:
UNAIDS.org

The new report reflects improved and expanded epidemiological data and analyses that present a better understanding of the global epidemic. These new data and advances in methodology have resulted in substantial revisions from previous estimates. The latest estimates cannot be compared directly with estimates published in previous years.

New data show global HIV prevalence—the percentage of people living with HIV—has leveled off and that the number of new infections has fallen, in part as a result of the impact of HIV programs. However, in 2007, 33.2 million [30.6 – 36.1 million] were estimated to be living with HIV, 2.5 million [1.8 – 4.1 million] people became newly infected and 2.1 million [1.9 – 2.4 million] people died of AIDS.

There were an estimated 1.7 million [1.4 – 2.4 million] new HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2007—a significant reduction since 2001. However, the region remains the most severely affected. An estimated 22.5 million [20.9 – 24.3 million] people living with HIV, or 68% of the global total, are in sub-Saharan Africa. Eight countries in this region now account for almost one-third of all new HIV infections and AIDS deaths globally: Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe (p15). South Africa is the country with the greatest number of infections in the world (p.16).

In Asia, the estimated number of people living with HIV in Vietnam has more than doubled between 2000 and 2005 and Indonesia has the fastest growing epidemic. Although the proportion of people living with HIV is lower than previously estimates, India’s epidemic continues to affect large numbers of people. Prevalence trends in India vary greatly between states and regions. In China, most people living with HIV are in Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Xinjiang, and Yunnan provinces. In Thailand, 43% of new in infections were among women, the majority of whom probably acquired HIV from their husbands or partners (p.21).

While the global prevalence of HIV infection—the percentage of people infected with HIV—has leveled off, the total number of people living with HIV is increasing because of ongoing acquisition of HIV infection, combined with longer survival times, in a continuously growing general population.

Global HIV incidence—the number of new HIV infections per year—is now estimated to have peaked in the late 1990s at over 3 million [2.4 – 5.1 million] new infections per year, and is estimated in 2007 to be 2.5 million [1.8 – 4.1 million] new infections, an average of more than 6 800 new infections each day. This reflects natural trends in the epidemic, as well as the result of HIV prevention efforts.

Determining real time trends in HIV prevalence (and in particular the impact of prevention programs on HIV incidence) ideally requires longitudinal studies of large numbers of people. Given the practical difficulties of conducting such studies, a proxy measure has been proposed (HIV prevalence in young women aged 15-24 attending antenatal clinics). HIV infections in these women are likely to be relatively recently acquired, influenced less by mortality and antiretroviral treatment than trends in adult or all-age prevalence. A review of the most recent available information of HIV prevalence among young pregnant women (15-24yrs) shows significant declines since 200/2001 in Kenya, Cote d’Ivoire, Malawi, Zimbabwe and rural parts of Botswana. Statistically non-significant declines have occurred in both rural and urban areas of Burkina Faso, Namibia, and Swaziland. There was no evidence of decline in Mozambique, South Africa, or in Zambia (p.12).